Flip a Coin
A short post on our current predicament
I’m glad I called it my UN continuing resolution, because Double Feature Friday is immediately cancelled. It seems that frequency of publishing is a lot better at gaining audience than two essays in a day.
I was just watching a video by David Stewart on the recent zeitgeist of Gen Z being cooked, and it’s packed with prescient observations. Starter homes aren’t starter homes anymore: they’re ghetto holes. The economic situation has turned so bad that even normies are noticing it. But don’t worry, we’re not in a recession!
We’re already in a pretty bad recession, perhaps as bad as the great recession. But this begs the question: where do we go from here?
There’s 2 main options for what comes next in the short-medium term.
Bubble burst. The massive asset bubble finally pops and we enter great depression 2.0. This will be deflationary, and not because inflation stops or reverses, but because assets will diminish precipitously relative to dollars and other currencies. Everyday expenses and goods will still be inflating, however. It’ll be worse than the first great depression for this reason and many others, particularly the extreme breakdown of the social fabric that’s happened in the last 100 years.
Continuing inflation to hyperinflation and enshittification. In this scenario, nothing changes very drastically or quickly. Inflation continues on and more and more people continue to drop into poverty for the enrichment of our usurious betters. Every year more and more people struggle to keep up with inflation as it is, and it’s only going to get worse. Sooner or later we’ll enter hyperinflation territory, even with the US dollar, and it’ll be a complete economic implosion when we get there (probably a few years down the line)
Either scenario can happen, and it’s extremely unpredictable at this point which way we’re going. I’m personally struggling with this as I’m trying to decide whether or not to liquidate my crypto holdings now, in the event of bubble burst, or hodl to keep up with inflation and ride the bull run.
Flip a coin: great depression 2.0 soon, or total economic meltdown in a couple years.
I personally see scenario 2 as more likely. The reason is pretty simple: our banksters, billionaires, and politicians all benefit from the asset bubble. The more it pumps, the richer they become. Just look at the richest doge on earth, Elon: his entire net worth is based on over-valuation and inflation! The central banks are also desperately trying to avert an economic downturn by slashing rates. Not that that means they’ll succeed, in fact they’ve already failed.
The efforts to prevent depression 2.0 can certainly fail, but all stops will be pulled out to prevent it based on what we’ve seen. Covid itself was declared right after the reverse repo market went haywire — a strong indicator of an economic earthquake coming.
For me, my money is on a big crisis occurring imminently to prevent economic meltdown, such as: WWIII, scamdempic, or cyber pandemic. Perhaps it won’t be necessary and scenario 2 can continue unabated, or maybe scenario 1 has actually been selected for us.
We’ll see. In the meantime, flip a coin and pray.
Shalom